May 15, 2026, 6:19 AM EDT. The stock market has confounded many investors with strong returns despite economic challenges, including inflation and geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 gained about 33% in the past year, the Dow rose roughly 23%, and the Nasdaq surged 47%. Experts caution against trying to predict short-term movements, which are highly volatile and influenced by unpredictable factors like trade tensions and supply disruptions. Historically, holding an investment such as an S&P 500 fund for longer periods significantly reduces the risk of losses. Short-term trading can result in locked-in losses and missed recovery gains, as illustrated by hypothetical scenarios involving the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). Data shows one-year periods see negative returns 33% of the time, but this risk declines sharply over five- and ten-year horizons. Investors are advised to prioritize time in the market over timing it to enhance potential returns.