SAN FRANCISCO, July 15, 2026, 06:30 PDT
- Company guidance suggests the second half needs an adjusted EBITDA margin near 37.7%, up from around 30% in Q2.
- SoFi closed at $18.55 Tuesday, putting the stock at roughly 30.9 times the company’s projected full-year adjusted earnings of $0.60 a share.
SoFi Technologies, Inc. NASDAQ:SOFI started Wednesday with some pressure on a break-even line deep in its 2026 outlook. To hit $1.6 billion in full-year adjusted EBITDA—a non-GAAP figure, excluding taxes, certain financing, and non-cash costs—the company would need that metric to reach about 37.7% of second-half revenue. That compares to 31.3% in the first quarter and an implied 30% for the second.
The timing is key with SoFi set to report Q2 results July 29. Shares finished Tuesday 2.3% higher at $18.55, with volume at 89.3 million—about 19% above the 65-day average, a sign of big trades ahead of earnings, not a slow summer day.
The bridge begins with $1.087 billion in first-quarter adjusted net revenue and $339.9 million adjusted EBITDA. Using management’s 30% growth call for the second quarter, based on last year’s $858.2 million, gets to about $1.116 billion in revenue. A 30% margin on that puts EBITDA around $334.7 million. The third and fourth quarters will have to make up a much bigger chunk.
| Period | Adjusted net revenue | Adjusted EBITDA | EBITDA margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 actual | $1.087 billion | $339.9 million | 31.3% |
| Q2 guidance | $1.116 billion | $334.7 million | 30.0% |
| H2 needed to hit annual goal | $2.452 billion | $925.4 million | 37.7% |
| 2026 full-year target | $4.655 billion | $1.600 billion | 34.4% |
Figures for the second quarter and second half are based on the company’s reported numbers and rough guidance. H2 refers to the third and fourth quarters.
The lower line is tougher. If you take the midpoint of SoFi’s 12% to 13% adjusted net-income margin forecast for the second quarter, SoFi has to generate around $519 million of adjusted net income in the back half, which is 21.2% of the expected revenue, to hit its $825 million full-year target. In the first quarter, the margin was 15%.
The math goes some way to show why the market sold off in April. Shares dropped 12% at the open after SoFi stuck to its yearly guidance, even as it posted record numbers for the quarter. William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey said the company “uncharacteristically did not flow through first-quarter revenue and EBITDA upside.” Reuters
Getting to the margin target isn’t a straight line. Lending and Financial Services pushed segment profits higher in Q1. But Technology Platform revenue dropped 27% after losing a big client. Contribution margin is direct segment profit before corporate shared costs.
| First-quarter segment | Revenue | Year-on-year change | Contribution margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lending | $642.4 million | up 55% | 60% |
| Financial Services | $428.5 million | up 41% | 46% |
| Technology Platform | $75.1 million | down 27% | 16% |
Fee revenue was up 23% at $386.8 million. It dropped as a share of adjusted revenue to 35.6% from 40.9% last year, since total revenue outpaced it. Loan-platform fees jumped nearly 49%. Interchange revenue climbed 54%. Brokerage revenue more than doubled. Tech-services fees dropped around 43%.
Funding remains the main path for hitting profit targets. Deposits grew $2.7 billion in the quarter to $40.2 billion and made up over 90% of SoFi’s liabilities. The company put its deposit cost at 155 basis points under warehouse funding, or 1.55 percentage points, and estimated $621.8 million in annualized interest expense savings.
Credit is still the main drag. The annualized charge-off rate for personal loans landed at 3.03%, down from 3.31% last year but higher than 2.80% in the previous quarter. An all-in estimate—which factors in recoveries and skips late-stage delinquent loan sales—held around 4.4%. The weighted average default assumption ticked up to 4.57% from 4.46% at year-end. “The health of our consumer base remains strong,” CEO Anthony Noto told Reuters in April. SEC
The 37.7% margin isn’t a company forecast, it’s implied. If second-quarter revenue comes in strong, the bar for the rest of the year falls. If loan-sale demand stays soft, deposit costs climb, credit losses move up, or Technology Platform keeps shrinking, that bar gets higher. SoFi can update the outlook July 29. The coming report is now a test of revenue mix and cost conversion, not just member growth.
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