The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at an all-time high of 53,178.41 on Monday, rising 693.38 points, or 1.32%, after the session ended. The close surpassed the previous record set on July 6 by 122.50 points.
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Last updated August 1, 2026 • 05:36 ET / 11:36 CEST • U.S. markets are closed
Wall Street moves into August showing a modest positive trend, but stops short of a decisive surge higher. The S&P 500 rose 1.0% over the past week, ending the period 1.6% under its June 2 all-time high. The Nasdaq advanced 1.6%, as small cap stocks remained mostly unchanged.
Ideally, hiring remains steady and wage increases stay limited. Strong jobs data may push Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations higher. A significant disappointment could fuel worries about economic growth.
Friday highlighted underlying tension. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7%, yet losing stocks surpassed gainers by 1.3 to 1. A handful of major firms powered the index higher. July ended with the Nasdaq falling 3.2%.
The S&P 500 is still near levels that could prompt another test, though broader market participation is needed.
Projected earnings stand at about 19 times the 10-year average.
S&P 500 earnings growth after adjustments, covering both reported figures and latest projections.
Friday’s session ended with higher yields continuing to weigh on equity multiples.
Probability of a 25 basis point hike by the Federal Reserve as priced in by the market.
The index slid 6.44% on Friday, even as several individual stocks posted significant swings.
The central bank left rates unchanged with a 9–3 vote, as three members called for an immediate quarter-point hike.
Inflation is still higher than the 2% target, making robust labour numbers more difficult for equities to digest.
Small caps remain ahead in 2026, yet they missed last week’s rally. The divergence is notable. Sustained gains typically require participation beyond megacaps.
Returns from the beginning of the year up to July 31, 2026. Bar scale ranges from 0% to 20%.
The jobs report is the primary focus. Over one in four S&P 500 companies are scheduled to announce results, maintaining elevated single-stock volatility.
ISM manufacturing: Expected at 54.0, compared with 53.3 in June.
After markets shut: Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR).
Trade deficit: Forecast at $73.0 billion, compared to $77.6 billion.
Job openings: Forecast at 7.5 million, compared to 7.6 million.
Results: Merck (NYSE:MRK), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).
ADP jobs: Forecast stands at 75,000, compared with 98,000.
ISM services: Forecast at 54.4, compared to 54.0 previously.
Results: Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) reported earnings.
Initial claims: Forecast was 200,000; actual result was 197,000.
Q2 productivity: Expectations were for 0.7%, compared with 0.3%.
Nonfarm payrolls: Forecast at 83,000, compared to 57,000 in June.
Unemployment: Expected at 4.3%, compared to 4.2%.
The wage data could prove just as significant as the overall jobs number.
Payrolls come in around 83,000, with unemployment remaining near 4.3% and Treasury yields slipping from 4.745%. Major companies post strong earnings, supporting the current earnings narrative. The S&P 500 now needs to climb just 1.6% to recover.
Index gains are underpinned by profit growth, yet a 20-times multiple and 67% chance of a rate hike curb further upside. Major growth stocks are at the forefront, while broader market participation stays uneven.
If hiring or wages heat up, oil prices remain high and the 10-year yield climbs, markets may face added strain. A disappointing earnings result from a leading AI or industrial firm could intensify selling, and last week’s gains could be erased.
WTI crude settled at $84.67 on Friday, while Brent ended at $90.12. Fresh tensions between the US and Iran could push energy prices higher and increase inflation forecasts. Rising bond yields may heighten valuation pressures, while a dense earnings calendar adds to gap risk among the biggest index components.
The 1.0% weekly rise should not be taken as widespread confirmation. A clearer indication will come next week if yields drop and participation increases. Absent both, any attempt at a record high could stay vulnerable.
Australia's stock market is expected to climb, tracking gains from a rally in U.S. tech stocks. The bigger challenge now lies ahead: the S&P/ASX 200 is trading higher than two stated year-end predictions, and earnings outlooks for sectors other than miners and banks are tightening.
Last updated July 31, 2026 · 08:02 AEST / 00:02 CEST · Market data accurate as of 08:02 AEST
Wall Street provides momentum, though weaker oil prices and lacklustre iron ore result in a mixed outlook for Australian resources stocks.
U.S. technology stands out as a definite positive. Commodity indicators provide less clarity.
A decline in oil prices reduces an inflation threat, though it may pressure energy stocks. Iron ore trading close to US$98 a tonne offers limited new backing for miners ahead of the market open.
The RBA will announce its upcoming decision on August 11 at 14:30 AEST.
Monthly inflation eased from 4.0% recorded in May, with the index for June slipping by 0.1% compared to the previous month. Trimmed-mean inflation for the second quarter stood at 3.6% year on year. Following the data, markets assessed the probability of an August rate increase at 3%, down from 21% earlier.
Consensus estimates for FY26 highlight the importance of August guidance.
With the gap remaining, the index continues to depend on two significant sources of profit. Trading at 19.1 times forward earnings, an overall lift in estimates would benefit the index more than a further increase in the valuation multiple.
Thursday finished with prices confined to a tight band near key housing projections.
These levels serve as reference points, not as a unified market view, due to differing horizons. Dividends are not included in percentage gaps.
No probability has been given. Each scenario hinges on earnings and interest rates.
A decisive move past the 52-week high, supported by upgrades to net earnings, would place the previously published 9,250 checkpoint within reach.
Results largely align with expectations. The index remains in a tight range, with dividends making up a greater portion of the overall return.
Sector downgrades widen and support collapses. The 8,500 level is back in focus as high valuations face renewed pressure.
Futures on Friday indicate a steadier open, rather than suggesting a re-evaluation of value. The index is trading close to its 52-week peak and aligned with stated projections, so any lasting shift is expected to be driven by earnings changes. Miners, industrials, and healthcare appear better positioned, while banks, consumer discretionary, and real estate stocks face more sensitivity to interest rates and remain at higher valuations.
