New York, June 15, 2026, 05:54 EDT
- Dow futures surged 480 points. S&P 500 futures gained 1.29%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.2%.
- Oil dropped more than 4% after the U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on Wednesday, and that’s the next big event.
Stocks futures rallied early Monday on news that Washington and Tehran struck a preliminary deal to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The route is vital for oil shipments. Dow E-minis traded up 480 points, or 0.94%, at 04:45 a.m. ET. S&P 500 E-minis added 95.75 points, or 1.29%. Nasdaq 100 E-minis rose 653.75 points, or 2.2%, per Reuters. MarketWatch reported Dow futures aimed for a roughly 500-point jump right after news broke of the tentative deal.
Stocks moved higher after traders saw less geopolitical risk and oil prices tumbled. Brent crude was near $83 and U.S. crude traded around $80 in early moves, dropping over 4% after details of the deal, according to MarketWatch and Trading Economics. Lower oil often means reduced costs for fuel and freight, cooling inflation, and more stable consumer spending. Airline and cruise shares gained in premarket trading. United Airlines added 4.4%, Delta 4%, American Airlines 3.5%, Norwegian Cruise was up 4.3%, and Carnival rose 3.6%, Reuters reported.
Futures got a boost from tech. Micron surged 8.2% after analysts lifted targets. Nvidia added 2.3%. Intel picked up 3.1%. Marvell Technology was up 5.4%, according to Reuters. With big tech and chip stocks packed into the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, those moves lifted the broader indexes. SpaceX shares rose 5.6% after the company’s IPO valued it above $2 trillion. Paramount Skydance jumped 4.7% after Reuters reported DOJ signoff on its Warner Bros. buyout.
Wall Street bulls argue a lasting U.S.-Iran deal might take oil shock risk off for now and make it less likely the Fed keeps rates higher due to inflation. “If the overnight news of a deal between the U.S. and Iran proves to be credible and lasting, this should be taken as a positive, whereas setbacks will likely be taken as less of a negative by risk assets,” Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research, told Reuters. The CBOE Volatility Index fell to 16.66, its lowest in more than a week.
Bears say the rally is built on hopes for a deal that isn’t sealed yet. Reuters said the framework still leaves Iran’s nuclear program and the Lebanon-Israel issue hanging. The plan is supposed to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. “There’s plenty of room to be disappointed here,” said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. “Without a nuclear agreement, I don’t think we can simply assume that any deal’s going to hold,” he told Reuters. AP reported that market stabilization may depend on whether traders have faith the agreement will last.
U.S. stocks are attracting buyers able to take on headline risk, betting on a rally built mainly on weaker oil, lowered inflation worries, and some renewed risk appetite. But stocks are not seen as cheap at these levels, with some traders moving in before any deal or the Fed’s decision. The market is set for Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its decision. Reuters reports most expect rates will stay unchanged, but traders still see at least one more 25-basis-point hike by year-end; one basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. If oil stays calm, that could support stocks, but any trouble with Iran negotiations or a more hawkish Fed could hit futures hard.
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