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Federal Reserve 26 September 2025 - 16 October 2025

US retail sales surprise intensifies Fed pause barbell position
Stocks Surge on Trade Optimism and Fed Cut Hopes – Is a New Bull Run Brewing?

Stocks Surge on Trade Optimism and Fed Cut Hopes – Is a New Bull Run Brewing?

Key facts: U.S. stock indexes jumped in mid-October as trade-war fears eased and Fed officials signaled more rate cuts. The S&P 500 closed near 6,671 and the Nasdaq around 22,670, while the Dow was roughly flatreuters.com. Futures point higher: on Oct. 16 morning, Dow futures were +0.4% and S&P 500 futures +0.2%economictimes.indiatimes.com. Major banks led the rallyts2.tech, and tech/AI stocks powered gainsts2.tech. Analysts have raised year-end targets – some now see the S&P hitting 6,000–7,000 by 2026ts2.tech. Still, experts warn that trade tensions with China and inflation risks keep volatility hights2.techreuters.com.
16 October 2025
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Fed Cuts Rates — But Mortgage Rates Refuse to Fall, Tech Stocks Surge to New Highs

Fed Cuts Rates — But Mortgage Rates Refuse to Fall, Tech Stocks Surge to New Highs

The Fed’s pivot to easier policy has not yet translated into cheaper mortgages. In September the Fed delivered its first rate cut of 2025 and Fed officials like Governor Michelle Bowman signal more cuts are comingreuters.com. Futures markets now imply a roughly 95% chance of another 25 bp cut at the Oct. 28–29 meetingts2.tech. Despite this, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is holding around 6.2%, slightly higher than a year agothedailyeconomy.orgreuters.com. Economists like Paul Mueller explain why: mortgages track the 10-year Treasury yield, which isn’t falling because supply/demand in bond markets is being driven by record deficitsthedailyeconomy.org. In Mueller’s words, “only Congress can rein in the spending that keeps long-term yields — and mortgage rates — stubbornly high”thedailyeconomy.org.
16 October 2025
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Bull Run or Bubble? Investors Eye New Highs as EUR/USD Rallies and Fed Prepares Cuts

Bull Run or Bubble? Investors Eye New Highs as EUR/USD Rallies and Fed Prepares Cuts

Global markets were buoyed this week by better-than-feared news on several fronts. After a rough September, U.S. bank earnings beat estimates: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both delivered upside surprises, which helped calm trade-war jittersreuters.com. European stocks likewise rallied, led by luxury companies: LVMH reported positive third-quarter sales and its shares surged as much as 14%, the biggest one-day rise since 2001reuters.comreuters.com. European indices closed higher by ~0.6%reuters.com. As Stefan Bauknecht of DWS observes, the luxury data “surprised investors positively and are likely to keep the sector’s share price momentum alive”reuters.com.
16 October 2025
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Bond Bombshell: Powell’s Dovish Tone Sends Treasury Yields Plunging – 2-Year Notes at 2022 Lows

Bond Bombshell: Powell’s Dovish Tone Sends Treasury Yields Plunging – 2-Year Notes at 2022 Lows

After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Oct 14 speech to business economists in Philadelphia, U.S. bond markets surged. Powell confirmed the Fed’s intent to proceed “meeting-by-meeting” with policy cuts and suggested the central bank may halt its $40 billion/month balance-sheet runoff soon reuters.com swissinfo.ch. His message – a familiar but balanced tone – calmed traders. 10-year Treasury yields plunged from about 4.1% into the low 4.0% range reuters.com swissinfo.ch, while 2-year yields dropped even more on expectations of aggressive rate easing.
15 October 2025
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Powell’s High-Stakes Speech Spurs Markets – Fed Signals More Rate Cuts in 2025

Powell’s High-Stakes Speech Spurs Markets – Fed Signals More Rate Cuts in 2025

Sources: Fed Chair Powell NABE speech coverageapnews.comreuters.com; Reuters analysis of Fed outlook and expert quotesreuters.comreuters.com; Associated Press report on Powell’s remarks and Fed policy shiftapnews.comapnews.com; Dow Jones Market summary and global market reactionfastbull.comreuters.com; TS² TechStock news digest on Fed and market trendsts2.techts2.tech.
14 October 2025
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Powell’s High-Stakes Balancing Act: Fed’s Dilemma Sparks Market Turmoil and Record Highs

Powell’s High-Stakes Balancing Act: Fed’s Dilemma Sparks Market Turmoil and Record Highs

In his remarks, Powell emphasized the unusual mix of a robust economy alongside persistent inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve economists now face “a duel” of forces – big fiscal and trade shock versus a tech/AI-driven boom – as EY’s Gregory Daco puts it reuters.com. Fed Governor Christopher Waller bluntly noted the contradiction: “You can’t have negative job growth and 4% GDP growth” reuters.com. In other words, either hiring must rebound to match output, or growth will slow. This tension has shaped policy: the Fed’s Sept. rate cut was portrayed as a way to support jobs without abandoning inflation goals reuters.com. Many officials now focus on employment risks; as Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said, policy should aim for neutrality to balance these risks reuters.com. But they’re wary of doing too much too fast, especially if inflation rebounds.
14 October 2025
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Stocks Surge as Trump Eases China Tariff Threats – Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Ignite Rally

Stocks Surge as Trump Eases China Tariff Threats – Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Ignite Rally

U.S. stock futures roared higher Monday as traders seized on softer trade rhetoric. Trump had threatened on Friday “massive” new tariffs on China, briefly sparking the Nasdaq’s worst single-day drop in months investopedia.com. He warned of 100% levies and cutting a summit with China’s Xi Jinping, which sent Friday’s S&P 500 down 2.7% and Nasdaq down 3.6% investopedia.com. But over the weekend Trump posted on Truth Social that “it will all be fine” with China and the U.S. did not want to “hurt” its economy investopedia.com. This reprieve calmed markets. Dow futures added +1.0%, S&P futures +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.9% by mid-morning investing.com.
13 October 2025
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Record Rally Stalls as Fed Cut Bets Soar and Earnings Loom

Record Rally Stalls as Fed Cut Bets Soar and Earnings Loom

After a streak of record-setting gains, Wall Street’s rally took a breather heading into the weekend. On Wednesday the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched all-time closing highs, but Thursday saw a mild pullback across major indicesnasdaq.com. The S&P 500 dipped about 0.3% Thursday, the Dow fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%econotimes.com, pausing a record-breaking tech-driven surge. High-flying semiconductor and AI stocks led the dip – for instance, Dell Technologies tumbled -5% and Micron -2% amid profit-takingnicoop.com.
10 October 2025
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Powell’s Next Move Could Make or Break 2025’s Record Stock Rally

Powell’s Next Move Could Make or Break 2025’s Record Stock Rally

Wall Street’s momentum in 2025 is undeniable – and increasingly historic. Stocks have been on a tear, repeatedly smashing records. After seven consecutive daily gains to start October, the market took only a brief pause before charging higher again. On October 8, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite clinched fresh all-time highs ts2.tech. These milestones extend what has already been a remarkable year; the S&P is up roughly 18% year-to-date, with the Nasdaq not far behind ts2.tech. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, while slightly lagging, is near its peak. To put the rally in perspective, the broad market has tacked on roughly $7 trillion in value this year amid this risk-on fervor.
9 October 2025
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Nasdaq Futures Slip After AI-Fueled Record Rally – Fed Cuts, Shutdown Drama & Tech Frenzy Drive Wall Street Surge

Nasdaq Futures Slip After AI-Fueled Record Rally – Fed Cuts, Shutdown Drama & Tech Frenzy Drive Wall Street Surge

Wall Street’s latest milestone comes against an unlikely backdrop: a U.S. government shutdown stretching into its second week. Yet stock investors have largely shrugged off Washington’s stalemate, focusing instead on favorable economic undercurrents. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +0.71% to 22,941.67, and the S&P 500 rose +0.36% to 6,740.28 – both record closing highs – even as the federal government remained partially closedreuters.comreuters.com. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, slipping 0.14%, but that modest dip didn’t derail what has been a robust multi-day rally. In fact, eight of the past ten sessions have seen U.S. indexes advance, a sign of resilient risk appetite on Wall Streetts2.tech. “It certainly feels like momentum is on the side of investors over the last few days,” observed Mona Mahajan, an investment strategist at Edward Jonests2.tech, noting how traders have eagerly bought any small dips.
7 October 2025
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Dow Soars to Record as Fed Cut Fever Grips Wall Street – Nasdaq Sags on Tech Slide – US Stock Market Today

Dow Soars to Record as Fed Cut Fever Grips Wall Street – Nasdaq Sags on Tech Slide – US Stock Market Today

U.S. stocks extended their autumn rally on Friday as investors doubled down on hopes that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle is finally reversing course. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly three-quarters of a percent to finish above 46,800 – its first-ever close above the 46,000 mark – and the S&P 500 notched a modest gain to end at 6,727, also a record high close reuters.com. In fact, both the Dow and S&P set all-time intraday highs during the session investopedia.com, capping what has been a stellar week. This strength came despite a notable divergence: the Nasdaq Composite, which had been climbing in the morning, flipped into the red by the closing bell, down about 0.2% reuters.com.
3 October 2025
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Gold Price Surges Past $3,800; Silver Nears 14-Year High on Fed-Cut and Shutdown Fears

Gold Price Surges Past $3,800; Silver Nears 14-Year High on Fed-Cut and Shutdown Fears

Gold and silver continue to ride a historic rally as investors seek safe assets amid uncertainty. By early Sept 30, spot gold hovered around $3,800/oz, having eased off record highs hit earlier in the week reuters.com reuters.com. U.S. gold futures traded near $3,828 reuters.com. The metal’s surge accelerated on Sept 29 – gold briefly spiked to $3,833.37/oz reuters.com before a slight pullback. Silver also climbed sharply, reaching about $46.85/oz on Sept 29 reuters.com and remaining near the mid-$40s the next day reuters.com. Platinum touched a 12-year high around $1,593 on Sept 29 reuters.com, while palladium and other metals are well above earlier-year levels.
30 September 2025
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Nasdaq Sizzles on Tech Mania as Shutdown and Fed Drama Unfold – Will the Rally Last?

Nasdaq Sizzles on Tech Mania as Shutdown and Fed Drama Unfold – Will the Rally Last?

Last week ended with Nasdaq near recent highs but under pressure from rotating profit-taking. On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% nasdaq.com amid “growing concerns over the record-high valuations of AI and tech stocks” nasdaq.com. Firms like Oracle and Tesla led the declines as investors questioned whether the AI investment spree was priced in nasdaq.com. By Friday, buyers returned: major indexes all finished modestly higher, leaving Nasdaq up ~0.4% on the day reuters.com.
29 September 2025
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Wall Street Feels the Heat (and Thrill): Fed Cuts, Tariffs & Mega-Mergers Set NYSE Buzz

Wall Street Feels the Heat (and Thrill): Fed Cuts, Tariffs & Mega-Mergers Set NYSE Buzz

Fed policy: The Fed’s Sept. 17 decision to cut rates was driven by slowing growth and job gains, though inflation has crept up federalreserve.gov. Fed Chair Powell and colleagues signaled further cuts ahead, but warned that inflation upside risks remain high federalreserve.gov reuters.com. Fed Vice Chair Bowman urged a commitment to cuts to shore up jobs reuters.com, while a strategist noted Powell was dovish but noncommittal on timing reuters.com.
28 September 2025
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Precious Metals Skyrocket: Gold Near $3,800, Silver Hits 14-Year High in Fed-Fueled Rally

Precious Metals Skyrocket: Gold Near $3,800, Silver Hits 14-Year High in Fed-Fueled Rally

Gold and its peers notched standout gains in late September, extending a remarkable rally in precious metals. Gold, in particular, powered to fresh record highs. On Tuesday of that week it breached $3,790 per ounce, an all-time high, before settling back slightly reuters.com. By Friday, spot gold was holding near $3,778/oz, up about 0.8% on the day and 2.5% higher for the week reuters.com. U.S. gold futures closed around $3,809 on Friday reuters.com, reflecting bullish sentiment in forward markets.
27 September 2025
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Wall Street Rebounds: PCE In‑Line, Tariff Shock, and Fed‑Cut Bets — What It All Means (Sept. 26, 2025)

Wall Street Rebounds: PCE In‑Line, Tariff Shock, and Fed‑Cut Bets — What It All Means (Sept. 26, 2025)

1) The data that mattered: PCE & spendingMarkets exhaled as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge arrived exactly as expected: headline PCE +0.3% m/m, core +0.2% m/m. Treasury yields drifted lower, with the 10‑yr near 4.18% and the 2‑yr around 3.65%, signaling relief that there was no upside shock. Futures ticked higher on the print. Reuters
26 September 2025
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PCE Inflation Today: “Goldilocks” or Head Fake? What the 26 Sept 2025 Report Really Means for Your Wallet, the Fed, and Markets

PCE Inflation Today: “Goldilocks” or Head Fake? What the 26 Sept 2025 Report Really Means for Your Wallet, the Fed, and Markets

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that headline PCE prices rose 0.3% in August, nudging the yearly rate to 2.7%. Core PCE—the measure the Fed emphasizes—rose 0.2% on the month and held at 2.9% year‑over‑year. The monthly pace is consistent with ~2½–3% annualized inflation, not yet back to 2%, but notably not re‑accelerating. Bureau of Economic Analysis
26 September 2025
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August PCE Inflation Rises Again – Is the Fed’s Rate Cut Plan in Jeopardy?

August PCE Inflation Rises Again – Is the Fed’s Rate Cut Plan in Jeopardy?

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report shows that price pressures picked up slightly in August. According to the Commerce Department data released on September 26, the overall PCE price index was up 2.7% in August 2025 compared to a year earlier wtop.com. That marks a gentle increase from the 2.6% annual inflation rate in July, and is the fastest year-over-year PCE inflation reading since February. In practical terms, American consumers in August paid on average 2.7% more for the basket of goods and services than they did in August 2024. While that rise is modest by historical standards, it does indicate a second consecutive month of accelerating inflation, after prices had been decelerating earlier in the year.
26 September 2025
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