The GEO Reboot: How 2040 Will Look from 36,000 km Up
Analysts expect about 200 new GEO satellites to launch between 2024 and 2040, replacing most of today’s 350-satellite fleet at a rate of 10–15 per year. NASA will phase out its TDRS relay satellites by the mid-2030s, shifting to commercial SATCOM services. The U.S. Space Force plans to retire large GEO missile-warning satellites after 2028, moving to lower orbits. Europe and commercial operators are advancing life extension, debris mitigation, and smaller GEO platforms.