SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) Slides 8.9% After Revenue Forecast Revised Up, Profit Guidance Unchanged

NEW YORK, July 30, 2026, 06:01 EDT — Nasdaq premarket trading was underway. Standard market session to open at 09:30 EDT.

  • Shares ended Wednesday at $15.25, falling 8.9%.
  • The midpoint for 2026 revenue guidance increased by $145 million, while EBITDA and EPS targets were left unchanged.
  • Revenue from the Technology Platform dropped by 23%, whereas Lending revenue increased by 63%.

Shares of SoFi Technologies, Inc. fell by $1.49 on Wednesday to end the session at $15.25. The stock’s drop came despite the company reporting record quarterly revenue and raising its full-year sales outlook, as investors shifted their attention to profitability.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:SOFI

The midpoint for July revenue increased by $145 million compared to April. However, adjusted EBITDA was steady at roughly $1.6 billion. Adjusted EPS held at approximately 60 cents.

2026 outlookApril 29 guidanceJuly 29 guidanceChange
Adjusted net revenue$4.655 billion$4.75 billion-$4.85 billionIncrease of $95 million to $195 million
Adjusted EBITDAAbout $1.60 billionAbout $1.60 billionNo change
Adjusted net incomeAbout $825 millionAbout $825 millionNo change
Adjusted EPSAbout $0.60About $0.60No change
Implied EBITDA margin34.4%33.0%-33.7%Decrease of 0.7-1.4 points

Company forecast; margins are calculated using non-rounded values.

Initial estimate: The revision does not attribute any additional 2026 EBITDA to the revenue increase. The full-year EBITDA margin drops to 33.3% from 34.4% at the midpoint. This is a factor in the stock’s movement.

Following first-half performance, SoFi needs to achieve approximately $902 million in EBITDA for the second half. Revenue at the midpoint would total about $2.51 billion, reflecting a 36.0% margin compared to 30.4% in the first half.

The company outperformed Wall Street forecasts for the quarter. Adjusted revenue was 7.6% higher than the LSEG consensus. Adjusted earnings per share surpassed expectations by one cent.

MetricQ2 2026ConsensusBeatQ2 2025Year-on-year
Adjusted net revenue$1.206 billion$1.12 billion7.6%$858.2 million40%
Adjusted EPS$0.12$0.119.1%$0.0850%
Adjusted EBITDA$357.8 million$249.1 million44%
GAAP net income$156.6 million$97.3 million61%

Company data; consensus forecasts gathered by LSEG and published by Reuters.

Chief Executive Anthony Noto stated that “spending remains strong, demand remains strong.” Speaking to Reuters, he said credit performance was in line with or surpassed projections. His remarks reinforce the outlook for loan volumes. Reuters

The composition of revenue was more complicated. Lending accounted for close to 60% of total consolidated GAAP revenue. The Technology Platform contributed just around 7%, marking a decline compared to the previous year.

SegmentQ2 net revenueYear-on-yearContribution margin
Lending$724.8 million63%55%
Financial Services$466.3 million29%46%
Technology Platform$84.5 million-23%14%

Corporate items and intercompany eliminations prevent segment revenue from adding up exactly to consolidated revenue.

Fee-based revenue totaled $472.3 million, accounting for 39% of overall revenue. The Loan Platform Business contributed $143.3 million, making up approximately 30% of the fee-based segment and still linked to lending operations.

Tim Switzer, analyst at KBW, described the outcome as a “lower-quality beat.” He maintained his underperform rating. Andrew Jeffrey of William Blair reiterated his outperform recommendation, signaling differing views regarding the strength of SoFi’s growth. MarketWatch

Member economics improved. Of all new products, 51% were opened by existing customers. For the first time, SoFi’s product additions outpaced member growth two-to-one.

Operating indicatorQ2 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Cross-buy rate35%43%51%
Products per member1.461.511.54
New members0.85 million1.055 million1.1 million
New products1.26 million1.8 million2.2 million
Personal-loan charge-off rate2.83%3.03%2.62%

Based on SoFi’s reported year-on-year improvement of 21 basis points.

Funding continued to provide significant support. Deposits climbed by $5.3 billion, reaching $45.5 billion. SoFi projected annualized savings of $712.6 million compared with warehouse funding. Net interest margin increased by four basis points to 5.98%.

The Technology Platform showed an indication of steadying. Revenue climbed 13% compared to the previous quarter. Enabled accounts grew by two million. Despite these gains, both figures remained below last year’s levels following a major client’s departure.

The next evaluation concerns profit conversion. SoFi will need to achieve the anticipated increase in second-half margins and restore growth in its Technology Platform. Doing so would address market worries regarding the quality of its revenue.

Risks: Loan originations increased by 69%, as the default assumption for personal-loan fair value climbed to 4.77% from 4.57%. Any consumer spending slowdown, softening in loan-sale markets, or ongoing platform-client attrition could threaten the second-half margin outlook.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What caused SOFI's decline even after surpassing second-quarter forecasts?
SOFI ended Wednesday at $15.25, down 8.9% on the day. Adjusted EPS posted at $0.12, ahead of the $0.11 consensus. Adjusted revenue came in around $1.21 billion, surpassing forecasts. Still, SoFi maintained its 2026 guidance at $0.60 for adjusted EPS and $1.6 billion for EBITDA. The market response indicates investors sought stronger profit margin improvements rather than simply higher growth. The Wall Street Journal
How solid were SoFi’s results for the second quarter?
GAAP revenue for the second quarter climbed 43% to $1.219 billion. Adjusted net revenue rose 40% to $1.206 billion. GAAP net income totaled $156.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA amounted to $357.8 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 30%, rising by one point from the prior year. The results reflect robust operating performance. Q4 Capital
What are the requirements in SoFi’s revised 2026 guidance?
SoFi increased its adjusted net revenue outlook to a range of $4.75–$4.85 billion, pointing to annual growth of 32%–35%. The adjusted EBITDA forecast stays at $1.6 billion, with an anticipated margin of 33%–34%. At the midpoint, about $2.51 billion in adjusted revenue is projected for the second half, with approximately $902 million in EBITDA still needed after June. Q4 Capital
Is SOFI trading at an appealing valuation near $15.25?
SoFi is valued at 25.4 times management’s projected 2026 adjusted earnings per share at $15.25. FactSet’s 2027 consensus of $0.82 brings the multiple down to 18.6. The stock is not outright inexpensive at these levels. Valuation becomes more attractive if earnings compound at a fast pace. However, multiples are likely to contract if growth, margin, or credit performance falls short. The Wall Street Journal
Do member growth and cross-selling continue to underpin the story?
SoFi reported 1.1 million new members, closing June with a total of 15.8 million, up 35% year over year. The company's product count increased by 42% to 24.4 million, following an addition of 2.2 million products. SoFi's average products per member rose to 1.54 from 1.46 a year earlier. The cross-buy rate reached 51%, reflecting increased customer engagement. Q4 Capital
Has credit risk remained manageable even with loan production reaching record levels?
Total originations climbed to $14.8 billion, up 69% from a year ago. Personal loan volume accounted for $10.7 billion, while student loans made up $2.7 billion. The personal-loan charge-off rate reported fell on a sequential basis to 2.62%. An alternative estimate, excluding the impact of delinquent-loan sales, placed the rate closer to 3.7%. Ninety-day delinquency rates were unchanged compared with a year earlier. Credit remains stable, though loan-sale adjustments make direct comparisons more complex. Q4 Capital
To what extent is the Technology Platform slowdown impactful?
Revenue from the Technology Platform segment declined 23% from a year earlier to $84.5 million. Contribution profit slid 65% to $11.8 million, with contribution margin contracting to 14%, compared with 30% the previous year. The number of accounts dropped 16% to 135 million following the loss of a major client. However, revenue increased 13% from the prior quarter, while accounts grew by two million. This remains the company’s most pronounced operational weakness. Q4 Capital
What impact does SoFi's deposit funding edge provide?
Deposits stood at $45.5 billion at the close of June, an increase of $5.3 billion from the previous quarter. Deposits made up over 90% of average liabilities for the quarter. SoFi's cost on deposits was 156 basis points below that of warehouse funding. According to management, this funding mix resulted in $712.6 million in annualized interest expense savings. The net interest margin was 5.98%. While asset yields could be reduced by interest rate cuts, deposit costs might also decline. Q4 Capital
What is a realistic estimate for SOFI's share price over the next 12 months?
FactSet data shows analysts on average target $20.05 for the stock, with a median forecast of $18. Targets range from $12 to $30. As a base case, $18–$21 is possible if 2027 EPS nears $0.82. A move above $25 in a bull case would require quicker earnings growth and a rebound in the Technology Platform segment. A bear scenario between $12 and $15 reflects expectations of weaker credit, margins, or valuation. These targets are subject to revision as analysts review Wednesday’s results. The Wall Street Journal

Roman Perkowski is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Cracow University of Economics, he previously worked in investment research and corporate finance. His coverage helps readers understand the key forces driving global financial markets and emerging industries. Follow Roman Perkowski on Google News.

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