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Federal Reserve 13 February 2026 - 20 February 2026

US retail sales surprise intensifies Fed pause barbell position
US GDP Cools to 1.4% as Core PCE Inflation Hits 3% — What It Means for Fed Rates

US GDP Cools to 1.4% as Core PCE Inflation Hits 3% — What It Means for Fed Rates

Futures for major U.S. indexes slipped Friday as fresh data pointed to a late-2025 slowdown in economic growth, while December inflation came in higher than forecast. As of 8:34 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis traded 0.28% lower, with Nasdaq 100 E-minis losing 0.39% and Dow E-minis off by 0.23%. The fourth quarter saw GDP expand at a 1.4% annualized clip, and core PCE inflation advanced 0.4% for December.
20 February 2026
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Mortgage rates today tick lower as U.S. markets shut; homebuilder stock prices in focus ahead of Fed minutes

Mortgage rates today tick lower as U.S. markets shut; homebuilder stock prices in focus ahead of Fed minutes

U.S. mortgage rates edged lower on Monday, with Bankrate’s national survey putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.13%, down 10 basis points from a week earlier; the 15-year fixed was 5.51% and the average 30-year refinance rate was 6.50%. Mortgage Bankers Association President Bob Broeksmit said applications were “essentially flat” last week, with borrowers leaning more on FHA loans — a government-backed option — and adjustable-rate mortgages, which reset after an initial period. U.S. stock markets were closed for the Presidents Day holiday, with trading set to resume on Tuesday.
16 February 2026
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Gold price dips below $5,000 in holiday-thin trade as dollar firms; Fed minutes next

Gold price dips below $5,000 in holiday-thin trade as dollar firms; Fed minutes next

Gold took a more than 1% hit on Monday, with spot prices tumbling below $5,000 an ounce as the U.S. dollar strengthened and thin holiday volumes set the tone. Spot bullion dropped 1.3% to $4,976.37 per ounce as of 1619 GMT. U.S. Comex gold futures for April delivery also softened, down 1% at $4,996.60. “Gold is range-trading around $5,000/oz in a week with lower liquidity due to holidays,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. MarketPulse's Zain Vawda at OANDA clipped his medium-term target, now looking for $5,100–$5,200 instead of $5,500.
16 February 2026
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Silver price whipsaws near $78 after CPI jolt as traders brace for Fed minutes

Silver price whipsaws near $78 after CPI jolt as traders brace for Fed minutes

After a wild stretch, silver bounced back Friday, jumping 3.4% to $77.70 an ounce as softer U.S. inflation numbers reignited talk of Fed rate cuts. Still, the metal was heading for a slight 0.3% loss on the week. LSEG data pinned the odds at around 63 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with markets leaning toward July for the first move. “Gold, and particularly silver, is enjoying a relief rally after a mild January CPI reading eased nerves,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.
15 February 2026
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Dow Jones holds near 49,500 after cooler CPI; Fed minutes and GDP/PCE loom after Presidents Day

Dow Jones holds near 49,500 after cooler CPI; Fed minutes and GDP/PCE loom after Presidents Day

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 48.95 points, or 0.1%, to close at 49,500.93 on Friday, with a milder inflation reading helping to calm Wall Street after a steep AI-driven selloff. U.S. stock and bond markets will be shut on Monday, Feb. 16, for Presidents Day. “It’s still too high, but only for now, not forever,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, referring to inflation.
15 February 2026
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Gold price today: $5,000 back in play as Fed minutes and U.S. data loom

Gold price today: $5,000 back in play as Fed minutes and U.S. data loom

Gold bounced sharply on Friday, gaining more than 2% to push back above $5,000 as softer U.S. inflation numbers fueled fresh bets on Fed rate cuts. Spot gold was up 2.1% at $5,022.06 an ounce by mid-afternoon in New York. U.S. April futures closed roughly 2% higher at $5,046.30. Silver rallied 3.4% to $77.70. Platinum and palladium moved up as well. Trader Tai Wong described the move as a “relief rally.”
15 February 2026
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AGNC stock price slips after soft U.S. CPI; dividend and Fed minutes loom

AGNC stock price slips after soft U.S. CPI; dividend and Fed minutes loom

AGNC Investment Corp closed out Friday at $11.36, slipping roughly 0.2%. The stock moved in a band from $11.23 to $11.54 as traders gravitated toward rate-sensitive stocks on the back of falling Treasury yields. Annaly Capital Management picked up about 0.5%. Dynex Capital was down around 0.4%. The VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF added about 0.6%.
15 February 2026
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Today’s highest-ranked model selections.

#1 STRONG BUY

AerCap Holdings

NYSE: AER 92/100
#2 BUY

Uber Technologies

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#3 BUY

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

NYSE: TSM 89/100
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dLocal

NASDAQ: DLO 86/100
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Tapestry

NYSE: TPR 84/100
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