Moody’s Says South Africa Debt Has Peaked, But Iran War Could Slow Growth
Moody’s said South Africa’s government debt is set to stabilise this year before declining, citing stronger revenue and tighter spending. The agency estimates debt peaked at 86.8% of GDP in March 2026, higher than Treasury’s 78.9% forecast. Moody’s expects the debt ratio to ease to 84.9% by 2028, but warned that debt above 80% limits fiscal flexibility. The Iran war could cut 2026–27 growth by up to 0.5 percentage points.